august 2025 economic events

comprehensive economic calendar for august 11-24, 2025. covers central bank meetings, critical data releases, jackson hole economic symposium, and major geopolitical developments including bolivia’s election and ongoing diplomatic activities.

overview

week three recap (august 11-16)

the third week of august delivered mixed signals across global markets, with central banks showing continued divergence in their policy approaches. the rba surprised markets by holding rates at 3.85% on august 12, despite 80% market expectations for a cut to 3.60%. this decision, coupled with the revelation of three dissenting votes in favor of cutting from the july meeting minutes, highlighted the bank’s cautious stance amid persistent inflation concerns.

u.s. economic data proved encouraging with july cpi coming in at 2.8% year-over-year, supporting the federal reserve’s patient approach. the 0.27% month-over-month increase was within expectations, providing some relief to markets concerned about persistent price pressures. however, industrial production data showed continued weakness with the manufacturing pmi remaining in contraction territory at 48% for the fifth consecutive month.

geopolitical developments dominated headlines with the trump-putin alaska summit on august 15 producing ukraine ceasefire discussions and the deadline for russian response to peace proposals. the armenia-azerbaijan peace summit at the white house also concluded, marking significant diplomatic activity during the period.

china’s mixed signals from july data showed gdp growth maintaining at 5.3% year-over-year, retail sales growing 5.0%, but property investment declining 11.2% year-to-date, reflecting the ongoing real estate sector challenges.

week four outlook (august 17-24)

the fourth week of august (august 17-24) represents a critical juncture for global markets, defined by three dominant themes that will shape market sentiment and policy expectations for the remainder of 2025.

theme 1: inflation crossroads crucial consumer price index reports from the uk, canada, and japan will test whether the global disinflation trend is intact or facing renewed pressure. the uk cpi (august 20) is expected to show a potential rise to 3.8% year-over-year, which would complicate the bank of england’s policy path. canada’s july cpi (august 19) forecasts suggest a potential re-acceleration to 2.0% from 1.9%, challenging the bank of canada’s recently adopted dovish stance.

theme 2: central bank divergence the fomc meeting minutes from the july 29-30 meeting (released august 20) will provide detailed insights into fed discussions that predate the softer july cpi data. markets expect these minutes to reveal a more hawkish tone than currently priced in. this contrasts sharply with the rbnz rate decision (august 20) where a cut is widely expected, and china’s pboc decision (august 18) expected to hold the loan prime rate steady at 3.00%.

theme 3: jackson hole economic symposium the premier global central banking forum (august 21-23) focuses on “labor markets in transition: demographics, productivity, and macroeconomic policy.” jerome powell’s speech on august 22 will be particularly crucial, offering the first opportunity to synthesize the week’s economic data and frame fed thinking heading into the september policy meeting.

market implications the potential for sticky inflation outside the u.s., combined with a hawkish-leaning federal reserve and signs of global growth slowdown, points to heightened volatility. the global flash pmis on august 21 will provide the first major economic indicators to capture business sentiment following new u.s. tariffs implemented in early august.

bolivia’s general election on august 17 adds geopolitical complexity, with polls suggesting no candidate will achieve the threshold to avoid an october runoff. this uncertainty affects global lithium and natural gas markets, given bolivia’s significant reserves.

event schedule

completed events (august 11-16)

upcoming events (august 17-24)

diplomatic status

indicators

current data (as of august 16)

upcoming forecasts (august 17-24)

policy rates

current rates (as of august 16)

policy divergence themes

hawkish surprises

• rba held at 3.85% despite 80% market expectations for cuts
• revealed 3 dissenting votes for cuts in july meeting
• indicates central bank caution on inflation persistence

dovish momentum

• bot delivered expected 25bp cut to 1.50%
• rbnz widely expected to cut on august 20
• ecb continuing gradual easing from 4% peak

data dependency

• fed awaiting september inflation data before potential cuts
• boj monitoring inflation persistence before next moves
• boe balancing growth concerns with inflation risks

china policy caution

• pboc expected to hold lpr at 3.00% on august 18
• signals measured approach to stimulus
• reflects stabilizing but not accelerating growth

critical events

completed events (august 11-16)

1. ✅ trump-putin alaska summit (aug 15) - ukraine ceasefire talks held, diplomatic breakthrough
2. ✅ armenia-azerbaijan summit (aug 15) - white house peace negotiations advanced
3. ✅ u.s. cpi release (aug 12) - 2.8% yoy eased fed pressure, 0.27% mom within expectations
4. ✅ china economic data (aug 15) - mixed signals: gdp 5.3%, property investment -11.2%
5. ✅ uk q2 gdp (aug 14) - growth decelerated sharply to 0.1% qoq from 0.7% q1
6. ✅ rba rate decision (aug 12) - surprised markets by holding at 3.85% vs cut expectations
7. ✅ thailand rate cut (aug 13) - delivered expected 25bp cut to 1.50%

upcoming critical events (august 17-24)

1. ⚠️ bolivia general election (aug 17) - first round voting, likely runoff required

   • significance: affects global lithium supply chains, political stability in latin america
   • risk: mas party split creates uncertainty, potential commodity market disruption

2. 🏛️ fomc meeting minutes (aug 20) - july 29-30 discussions revealed

   • significance: pre-dates soft cpi data, likely more hawkish than markets expect
   • risk: could boost usd, weigh on risk assets if reveals unified hawkish stance

3. 📊 uk cpi inflation (aug 20) - july data, forecast 3.8% yoy

   • significance: tests bank of england policy path, potential boe dovish pivot delay
   • risk: above 3.8% could strengthen gbp, complicate monetary easing

4. 🇨🇦 canada cpi (aug 19) - july inflation, forecast 2.0% from 1.9%

   • significance: challenges bank of canada dovish stance
   • risk: re-acceleration strengthens cad, delays rate cuts

5. 🏦 rbnz rate decision (aug 20) - widely expected 50bp cut

   • significance: confirms dovish pivot, contrasts with fed hawkishness
   • risk: larger cut signals growth concerns, weighs on nzd

6. 📈 global flash pmis (aug 21) - first august economic activity read

   • significance: captures impact of new u.s. tariffs on business sentiment
   • risk: weak u.s. reading could trigger recession fears, global risk-off

7. 🎯 jackson hole symposium (aug 21-23) - “labor markets in transition”

   • significance: powell speech august 22 sets september meeting expectations
   • risk: hawkish tone from global central bankers could boost volatility

8. 💼 major retail earnings (aug 20-21) - target, lowe’s, walmart, home depot

   • significance: back-to-school season performance, consumer health indicator
   • risk: weak results signal recession, tariff impact on margins

market expectations

completed outcomes vs expectations (august 11-16)

upcoming expectations (august 17-24)

key market themes

theme 1: inflation divergence

• u.s. showing disinflationary progress (2.8% cpi vs 3%+ in uk/canada)
• creates policy divergence with fed potentially cutting while others hold
• usd strength vs gbp/cad if inflation proves sticky abroad

theme 2: central bank communication

• fomc minutes likely more hawkish than current market pricing
• jackson hole provides coordinated messaging opportunity
• policy divergence theme reinforced if fed maintains hawkish bias

theme 3: growth vs inflation trade-off

• flash pmis critical for assessing tariff impact on business sentiment
• weak growth + sticky inflation = stagflation risk
• particularly relevant for uk given 0.1% q2 gdp + potential 3.8% cpi

theme 4: housing market sensitivity

• multiple u.s. housing indicators test rate sensitivity
• critical for fed policy assessment given dual mandate
• weakness could accelerate dovish pivot despite inflation concerns

jackson hole economic symposium

overview

the annual economic symposium in jackson hole, wyoming (august 21-23) serves as the premier global platform for central bankers, economists, and policymakers to signal future monetary policy directions. hosted by the federal reserve bank of kansas city, this year’s theme “labor markets in transition: demographics, productivity, and macroeconomic policy” directly addresses the key challenges facing major economies as they navigate post-pandemic structural changes.

significance for markets

jackson hole has historically been the venue for major policy announcements and framework shifts. the 2025 symposium arrives at a critical juncture where:

• policy divergence is becoming pronounced among major central banks
• inflation trajectories are diverging across regions
• labor markets are experiencing structural transitions
• geopolitical tensions are reshaping trade and investment flows

key participants

• 120 central bankers and economists from 70 countries
• jerome powell (fed chair) - keynote speech august 22
• christine lagarde (ecb president) - potential remarks
• andrew bailey (boe governor) - policy framework discussion
• academic luminaries providing research insights

market-moving potential

jerome powell’s speech (august 22, ~12:00 pm edt)

• timing significance: first major speech after fomc minutes release and week’s inflation data
• market expectations: data-dependent messaging with september cut guidance
• upside risk: hawkish tone if inflation concerns persist
• downside risk: dovish pivot if growth data weakens

theme relevance: labor markets in transition

• directly addresses demographic shifts affecting productivity
• aging populations in developed economies
• immigration policy impacts on labor supply
• automation and ai effects on employment
• wage-price spiral dynamics in tight labor markets

historical precedent

jackson hole speeches have marked significant policy shifts:

• 2020: powell’s “flexible inflation targeting” framework
• 2022: “forceful” action on inflation
• 2025: potential guidance on policy normalization timeline

key questions for 2025

1. coordination vs divergence: will central banks signal coordinated approach or accept regional policy differences?
2. neutral rate debate: where are neutral policy rates in the post-pandemic economy?
3. labor market evolution: how do demographic transitions affect potential growth?
4. financial stability: what are risks from prolonged policy divergence?

market implications

potential outcomes and market reactions:

scenario 1: coordinated dovish pivot

• positive for risk assets, emerging markets
• currency volatility decreases
• bond yields decline globally

scenario 2: fed maintains hawkish bias

• usd strength continues
• emerging market pressure
• risk asset volatility

scenario 3: policy divergence acknowledged

• currency volatility increases
• regional equity performance diverges
• flight to quality in uncertain environment

timeline

completed events timeline (august 11-16)

monday, august 11

• italy inflation (1.7% yoy), south africa manufacturing (5.2% yoy), mexico industrial production (0.9% yoy)
• brazil bcb focus market readout released
• u.s. treasury 3m/6m bill auction (4.165%, 3.980%)
• japan mountain day holiday - markets closed

tuesday, august 12

• rba rate decision: held at 3.85% (vs 80% market expectation for cut) - major market surprise
• u.s. cpi: 2.8% yoy, 0.27% mom - within expectations, eased fed pressure
• uk labour market: 4.7% unemployment, 5.0% wage growth
• germany zew sentiment: ~52
• south africa unemployment: 32.6%
• u.s. nfib small business optimism: 98.7
• india cpi: 1.6% yoy
• brazil inflation: 0.3% mom
• russia peace proposal deadline

wednesday, august 13

• germany final cpi, spain final cpi confirmed
• thailand rate cut: 25bp to 1.50% (as expected 82% probability)
• singapore q2 gdp final, australia wage index q2
• rba minutes: revealed 3 dissenting votes for rate cuts in july meeting
• u.s. mortgage applications, eia oil inventories
• south africa retail sales (june), brazil retail sales (june)
• australia employment (july)

thursday, august 14

• u.s. ppi (july), u.s. jobless claims
• uk q2 gdp: 0.1% qoq (sharp deceleration from 0.7% q1)
• france final cpi (july)
• eurostat industrial production, gdp (june, q2)
• japan q2 gdp: 0.6% qoq, 2.4% annualized
• india trade balance (july)
• china pboc m2, new loans (july)
• brazil services (june)
• african union urban resilience conference (aug 14-16)

friday, august 15

• trump-putin alaska summit: ukraine ceasefire talks held
• trump armenia-azerbaijan summit: white house peace negotiations
• china july data: gdp 5.3% yoy, retail +5.0%, property investment -11.2%
• u.s. retail sales: 0.6% mom (strong consumer spending)
• u.s. industrial production: pmi 48% (5th month contraction)
• u michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary)
• uk june gdp (monthly)
• hong kong q2 gdp, malaysia q2 gdp
• japan industrial production (june final)
• global holidays: assumption day, independence days, liberation day

upcoming events timeline (august 17-24)

sunday, august 17

• bolivia general election: first round voting, mas party split, likely runoff
• uk rightmove house price index (august)

monday, august 18

• pboc loan prime rate decision: expected hold at 3.00% and 3.50%
• canada housing starts (july): consensus 281.0k
• u.s. nahb housing market index: consensus 34
• eurozone balance of trade (june)
• palo alto networks earnings (cybersecurity bellwether)
• un security council unifil lebanon consultations (mandate expires aug 31)

tuesday, august 19

• canada cpi (july): forecast 2.0% yoy from 1.9% - key inflation test
• u.s. housing starts/building permits (july): forecast 1.29m
• world humanitarian day (un observance)
• home depot earnings (retail sector indicator)
• apple manufacturing academy opening (detroit)

wednesday, august 20

• eurozone hicp final (july): 2.0% yoy confirmation expected
• rbnz interest rate decision: widely expected 50bp cut to 2.75%
• uk cpi (july): potential rise to 3.8% yoy - critical for boe policy
• fomc meeting minutes (july 29-30): likely hawkish tone pre-dating soft cpi
• major retail earnings: target, lowe’s, tjx companies
• germany producer price index (july)
• u.s. eia crude oil inventories

thursday, august 21

• global flash pmis (august): first august growth indicators, tariff impact assessment
• jackson hole symposium begins: “labor markets in transition” theme
• u.s. initial jobless claims: consensus 227k
• u.s. existing home sales (july): forecast 3.90m units
• philadelphia fed manufacturing index (august)
• walmart earnings (dow component, consumer health indicator)
• major tech earnings: intuit, workday, zoom

friday, august 22

• jerome powell jackson hole speech: critical fed policy signals (~12:00 pm edt)
• uk retail sales (july): modest mom increase expected
• japan national cpi (july): core inflation 3.2% yoy forecast
• canada retail sales (june): rebound expected
• ijcai ai conference concludes (montreal)
• un security council maritime security debate

saturday, august 23

• jackson hole symposium final day: closing statements from central banks
• potential ecb president lagarde remarks

sunday, august 24

• new zealand retail sales (q2): consumer spending indicator following rbnz cuts

critical market dependencies

inflation trajectory divergence

• u.s. 2.8% vs uk potential 3.8% vs canada 2.0%
• creates policy divergence pressures

central bank communication cascade

• fomc minutes → uk/canada cpi → rbnz decision → jackson hole
• coordinated messaging vs regional policy independence

geopolitical complexity

• bolivia election affects lithium supply chains
• ukraine peace process follow-up from alaska summit
• middle east maritime security challenges

key metrics

geopolitical indicators

• ukraine conflict: russia controls 19-20% ukraine (gained 886 sq miles dec-jun)
• russian casualties: 236,000 in 2025 (1,080/day june)
• russian finances: deficit 4.9t rubles ($61.4b)
• moscow exchange: 14 days losses following sanctions
• u.s. congress: 84 senators support 500% oil tariffs on russia
• european energy: eu gas from russia now 10% (was 44% pre-war)
• bolivia politics: mas party split between arce vs morales factions

economic performance metrics

united states

• cpi: 2.8% yoy (july), 0.27% mom - within fed comfort zone
• core cpi: 2.6% yoy - persistent above 2% target
• manufacturing pmi: 48% (5th consecutive month in contraction)
• retail sales: 0.6% mom (july) - consumer resilience
• recession probability: 60% (jpmorgan estimate)

china

• gdp growth: 5.3% yoy h1 2025 - above official target
• retail sales: +5.0% yoy (july) - domestic demand stable
• property investment: -11.2% ytd - crisis ongoing
• home prices: -8.57% yoy - sharp correction
• youth unemployment: 15% - structural challenge

australia

• rba rate: 3.85% held (vs 80% cut expectation) - major market surprise
• cpi: 2.1% - within target range
• unemployment: stable labor market conditions

united kingdom

• q2 gdp: 0.1% qoq (vs 0.7% q1) - sharp deceleration
• unemployment: 4.7% (july)
• wage growth: 5.0% yoy - persistent pressure
• expected cpi: 3.8% yoy (july) - above boe target

other key economies

• thailand: deflation -0.9% cpi, rate cut to 1.50%
• chinese tourism impact: -32.7% yoy visitors to thailand
• south africa: unemployment 32.6% - crisis levels
• india: cpi 1.6% yoy - below target
• japan: gdp 0.6% qoq q2, 2.4% annualized recovery

financial market metrics

central bank rates (current)

• fed: 4.25-4.50% (87% prob september cut)
• rba: 3.85% (market repricing after hold)
• bot: 1.50% (cut delivered as expected)
• boj: 0.5% (watching inflation data)
• ecb: 2.0% (gradual easing cycle)
• boe: 4.0% (data-dependent approach)

market expectations (upcoming week)

• rbnz: 80% prob 50bp cut to 2.75%
• pboc: expected hold lpr at 3.00%
• canada cpi: forecast 2.0% from 1.9%
• uk cpi: potential rise to 3.8% yoy

corporate earnings expectations

major retailers (aug 19-21)

• home depot: eps $4.70, revenue$45.3b expected
• walmart: eps $0.74, revenue$174.2b expected
• target: eps $2.01 expected
• lowe’s: eps $4.25 expected

technology sector

• palo alto networks (aug 18): eps $0.89 expected
• back-to-school season performance indicator
• tariff impact on retail margins assessment

demographic and structural metrics

labor market transitions (jackson hole theme)

• aging populations in developed economies
• immigration policy impacts on labor supply
• automation and ai effects on employment
• wage-price spiral dynamics in tight labor markets

commodity dependencies

• bolivia lithium reserves: world’s largest identified resources
• bolivia natural gas: south america’s second-largest reserves
• global supply chain risks from political instability