nato, the eu, and the challenge of hybrid warfare
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NATO, the EU, and the Challenge of Hybrid Warfare
Source: Compiled from public sources, including the Atlantic Council and Hybrid CoE. Date: September 2025
This document provides an analysis of the evolving nature of hybrid warfare and the responses developed by NATO and the European Union. By September 2025, the strategic competition between Russia and the West is predominantly being waged in the “gray zone” between peace and war, using a wide range of hybrid tactics.
The Evolution of Hybrid Threats
The concept of hybrid warfare, which gained prominence after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, has continued to evolve. Initially focused on the combination of irregular military forces, disinformation, and political subversion, the toolkit of hybrid threats has expanded significantly.
By September 2025, the key elements of the hybrid threat landscape include:
- Coordinated Physical and Cyber Attacks: The synchronized use of physical and digital attacks to maximize disruption of critical infrastructure. The attacks on European airports in September 2025 are a prime example, where physical drone incursions were combined with DDoS and ransomware attacks on the same targets to cause widespread chaos.
- Cyberattacks: Persistent and sophisticated cyberattacks targeting government networks, critical infrastructure, and private industry.
- Disinformation and Information Warfare: The use of state-controlled media, social media, and covert online operations to sow division, undermine trust in democratic institutions, and spread false narratives.
- Economic Coercion: The use of energy supplies, trade restrictions, and other economic levers to exert political pressure.
- Sabotage and Disruption of Critical Infrastructure: Covert actions targeting critical infrastructure, including energy pipelines, undersea cables, and transportation networks.
- Weaponization of Migration: The instrumentalization of migration flows to create social and political instability on NATO’s borders.
NATO and EU Responses
In response to this evolving threat, both NATO and the EU have developed comprehensive strategies focused on resilience and deterrence.
NATO’s Approach
- Deterrence and Defence: NATO has made clear that it is prepared to deter and defend against the full spectrum of hybrid threats. The Alliance has stated that a hybrid attack could lead to an Article 5 declaration.
- Counter-Hybrid Support Teams: NATO has established Counter-Hybrid Support Teams that can be deployed to an Allied nation upon request to provide tailored assistance in countering hybrid activities.
- Enhanced Intelligence and Situational Awareness: The Alliance has significantly increased its intelligence gathering and analysis capabilities to better detect and attribute hybrid threats.
- “Eastern Sentry” and “Baltic Sentry”: These are examples of active military operations designed to respond to specific hybrid threats, such as airspace violations and threats to undersea infrastructure.
The European Union’s Approach
- “A Strategic Compass”: The EU’s 2022 Strategic Compass explicitly addresses hybrid threats and calls for a more robust and coordinated response.
- EU Hybrid Toolbox: This toolbox provides a framework for a joint EU response to hybrid threats, including measures to enhance resilience, counter disinformation, and protect critical infrastructure.
- “ProtectEU Strategy” and “Drone Wall”: These initiatives, launched in 2025, are designed to bolster internal security and develop specific countermeasures to emerging hybrid threats like drone incursions.
- NATO-EU Cooperation: There is a strong emphasis on close cooperation between NATO and the EU in countering hybrid threats, including joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and coordinated responses.
By September 2025, the confrontation with Russia has demonstrated that the future of European security will be defined by the ability of NATO and the EU to effectively deter and defend against a wide range of hybrid threats. This requires a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach, combining military readiness with civilian resilience.