Is NATO Ready for War?

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Date: June 2024

NATO has made significant progress in strengthening its defense and deterrence since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, adopting a “back to the future” strategy of forward defense and deterrence. This includes substantial advancements in defense spending, forward defense, high-readiness forces, command and control, collective defense exercises, and the integration of Finland and Sweden.

However, while NATO may be ready for immediate conflict, the question remains whether it is prepared for a protracted war. To achieve this, allies need to increase spending, boost industrial capacity, address critical capability gaps, and enhance national resilience.

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Key Areas of Progress and Remaining Challenges

• Defense Spending:

  • Progress: Eighteen allies are projected to meet the 2 percent of GDP defense spending target in 2024, up from three in 2014.
  • Challenges: Is 2% sufficient? Are funds being spent efficiently and on the right capabilities?

• Forward Defense Forces:

  • Progress: NATO has enhanced its eight Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) missions, integrating them into the command structure.
  • Challenges: Only two EFP missions are planning to permanently scale up to brigade size. Is this sufficient to deter by denial?

• NATO Force Model (NFM):

  • Progress: The NFM aims for a larger pool of high-readiness forces, with significant contributions announced by allies like Germany and the UK.
  • Challenges: Meeting the 300,000 troop target, recruitment and retention issues, and ensuring commanders have the authority to deploy forces.

• Command Structure:

  • Progress: New headquarters are operational in Latvia and Poland, and JFC Norfolk is being upscaled to integrate Finland and Sweden.
  • Challenges: Developing adequate command arrangements for the newly expanded Nordic flank.

• Integration of Finland and Sweden:

  • Progress: Their accession has significantly boosted NATO’s deterrent power with highly capable forces.
  • Challenges: Adjusting regional plans and command structures to fully incorporate the new members.

• Collective Defense Exercises:

  • Progress: NATO has refocused its exercise program on collective defense, with Steadfast Defender 2024 being the largest exercise since the Cold War.

• Defense Industry:

  • Progress: The Defence Production Action Plan (DPAP) aims to aggregate demand and increase production capacity.
  • Challenges: Significant production shortfalls, particularly in ammunition, and potential tensions between NATO and EU efforts.

• Defense Capabilities:

  • Progress: NATO’s cumulative capabilities exceed Russia’s, even without the United States.
  • Challenges: Significant capability gaps and readiness challenges, including magazine depth for precision munitions, and shortfalls in naval forces, air enablers, and air defense.

• Resilience:

  • Progress: NATO has launched initiatives to enhance resilience, including a Resilience Committee and a NATO-EU Task Force.
  • Challenges: Resilience demands persistence, investment, and cooperation. Each ally must also confront the societal challenge of war preparedness.

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Conclusion

NATO is prepared for immediate conflict, but its readiness for a prolonged war requires further improvements in defense spending, industrial capacity, critical capability gaps, and national resilience.